Analyzing Russia-Ukraine war: The context, evolution, and global economic-cum-institutional implications
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/10.1.1Keywords:
Global economy, Institutional dynamics, Institutional responses, International organisations, Geopolitical interests, National interest, Power dynamicsAbstract
The Russia-Ukraine war is one of the significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century, with far-reaching political, social, and economic consequences. It begins with the legacy of the Cold War, highlighting the impact of NATO enlargement on shaping Russia’s perceptions of security. It examines President Putin’s strategic motives, based on nationalism, fear of NATO expansion toward Russian-speaking regions, and attempts to reaffirm Moscow’s regional power. This study examines political, military, and economic aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war for both countries and the global world order. Ukraine has suffered vast displacement, infrastructure damage, and long-term losses of investment and trade, whereas Russia has been hit by sanctions, shrinking exports, and currency devaluation. The war has disrupted global food and energy supplies, exacerbated inflation, and rattled supply chains. Mediation by international bodies, such as the UN and the EU, has been largely ineffective. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the conflict is not merely a regional battle but also an economic one, reshaping global markets and altering political relations between countries. Sustained diplomatic engagement and strong international cooperation will be necessary to achieve lasting peace, and one cannot ignore the humanitarian and economic elements at stake.
References
Alper. A. (2022). Exclusive: Russia’s attack on Ukraine halts half of world’s neon output for chips Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-ukraine-halts-half-worlds-neon-output-chips-clouding-outlook-2022-03-11/
Abay, K. A., Breisinger, C., Glauber, J., Kurdi, S., Laborde, D., & Siddig, K. (2023). The Russia Ukraine war: implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses. Global Food Security, 36, 100675. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GFS.2023.100675
Al-Saidi, M. (2023). Caught off guard and beaten: The Ukraine war and food security in the Middle East. Frontiers in Nutrition, 10, 983346. https://doi.org/10.3389/FNUT.2023.983346
Bayramov, V., & Islamli, N. (1 C.E.). Global oil price shocks and sustainability: the case of Post Soviet Resources-Rich Countries. Https://Services.Igi-Global.Com/Resolvedoi/Resolve.Aspx?Doi=10.4018/978-1-6684-5580-7.Ch003, 49–73. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-5580-7.CH003
BBC News. (n.d.). Nato plans huge upgrade in rapid reaction force. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61954516
Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food security: towards more sustainable and resilient food systems? Foods, 11(15), 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/FOODS11152301
bne IntelliNews. (2025). Russo-China trade turnover rises 1.9% to $244.81bn in 2024. https://www.intellinews.com/russo-china-trade-turnover-rises-1-9-to-244-81bn-in-2024-361098/
CNN. (2025). Russia nears 1 million war casualties in Ukraine, study finds. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/04/europe/russia-war-casualties-1-million-ukraine-intl
Cilliers, J. (2023). Uncovering the reality of Ukraine’s decimated energy infrastructure | United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/ukraine/blog/uncovering-reality-ukraines-decimated-energy-infrastructure
Desnick, D. (n.d.). How Russia rigged Crimean referendum. Forbes.
Donaldson, R. H. (2017). The role of Nato enlargement in the Ukraine Crisis. The Soviet and Post-Soviet Review, 44(1), 32–52. https://doi.org/10.1163/18763324-04401004
European Commission. (n.d.). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine - European Commission. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en
European Commission. (n.d.). EU to fully end its dependency on Russian energy. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1131
Fukuyama, F. (2015). The end of history? In Conflict after the Cold War (pp. 16–27). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315664484-6
Fukuyama, F. (2015). The end of history and the last man. Free Press.
Goldgeier, J. (2019). Promises made, promises broken? What Yeltsin was told about NATO in 1993 and why it matters. https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters-2/
Goncharenko, R. (2019, March 16). What’s left of the “Crimea effect”? DW. https://www.dw.com/en/vladimir-putins-crimea-effect-ebbs-away-5-years-on/a-47941002
Global Times. (2023). China’s trade with Russia surges 36.5% from Jan-Jul, despite global downturn. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295937
International Monetary Fund. (2023). Cost of living crisis. IMF Annual Report 2023. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2023/in-focus/cost-of-living-crisis/
International Energy Agency. (2023). Oil market report – February 2023. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2023
Jakupec, V. (2025). EU Sanctions and the Russo–Ukraine War: strategies and repercussions. In The EU’s strategic dilemma in the Ukraine War: sanctions, military aid, and the struggle for coherence in foreign policy (pp. 21-38). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-01595-2_2
Jakupec, V. (2025). The paradox of sanctions and the EU’s strategic dilemma. In The EU’s strategic dilemma in the Ukraine War: sanctions, military aid, and the struggle for coherence in foreign policy (pp. 1-19). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-01595-2_1
Janzen, J., & Zulauf, C. (2023). The Russia-Ukraine war and changes in Ukraine corn and wheat supply: impacts on global agricultural markets. Farmdoc Daily, 13(34). https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/02/the-russia-ukraine-war-and-changes-in-ukraine-corn-and-wheat-supply-impacts-on-global-agricultural-markets.html
Jones, S. G., & Daniels, S. P. (2025). Deterring Russia: U.S. Military posture in Europe. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/deterring-russia-us-military-posture-europe
Kas’Ianov, G. (2022). Russia’s War in Ukraine: identity, history, and conflict. Russian Politics and Law, 48(5), 25–47. https://doi.org/10.2753/RUP1061-1940480502
Kiesewetter, R., & Zielke, I. (2016). Permanent NATO deployment is not answer to European
security. European View 2016 15:1, 15(1), 37–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/S12290-016-0392-8
Kolisnichenko. V. (n.d.). Industrial production in Ukraine fell by 36.9 percent at the end of 2022. Industry News. https://gmk.center/en/news/industrial-production-in-ukraine-for-2022-decreased-by-36-9/
Lepskiy, M., & Lepska, N. (2023). The War in Ukraine and its challenge to NATO: peacekeeping to peace Engineering. American Behavioral Scientist, 67(3), 402–425. https://doi.org/10.1177/00027642221144833
Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer-Lee, P., & Sanchez Juanino, P. (2023). Economic costs of the Russia-Ukraine war. The World Economy, 46(4), 874–886. https://doi.org/10.1111/TWEC.13336
Mechanical Engineering in Russia. (n.d.). TAdviser. https://tadviser.com/index.php/Article:Mechanical_Engineering_in_Russia
Murithi, T. (2022). The failure of the United Nations security council in creating the framework conditions for mediation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 44(1). https://doi.org/10.35293/SRSA.V44I1.4082
Nguyen, P. V., Ngo, V. M., Nguyen, H. H., & Huynh, L. D. T. (2022). Public sentiment towards economic sanctions in the Russia–Ukraine war. CEPR’s VoxEU. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/public-sentiment-towards-economic-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. (n.d.). Energy transition scenarios: Impact on natural gas. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/energy-transition-scenarios-impact-on-natural-gas/
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. (n.d.). Follow the money: understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/follow-the-money-understanding-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues/
Okada, Y. (2023). Locating the Veto power in the International Legal Order: when a permanent member of the UN Security council becomes an aggressor. Global Impact of the Ukraine Conflict: Perspectives from International Law, 71–91. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-4374-6_4
Paulson, N., Janzen, J., Zulauf, C., Swanson, K., & Schnitkey, and G. (2022). Revisiting Ukraine, Russia, and agricultural commodity markets. Farmdoc Daily, 12(27). https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/02/revisiting-ukraine-russia-and-agricultural-commodity-markets.html
Prohorovs, A. (2022). Russia’s War in Ukraine: consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15(7), 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/JRFM15070295
Pszczel, R. (2024). How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance (OSW Commentary No. 609). Centre for Eastern Studies.https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-06-28/how-to-win-war-and-join-nato-key-role-ukraines-partnership
Re:Russia. (2025). Uneven Growth: While the incomes of most Russian households have risen, 20% have lost out from economic restructuring, while another 20% have seen their incomes increase by one and a half times or more. Re:Russia. https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/0277/
Riste, O. (2001). NATO, the Northern Flank, and the Neutrals. A History of NATO — The First Fifty Years, 241–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-65573-1_15
Rosefielde, S., & Bernstam, M. (2024). Russo–Ukrainian war: limits of Western economic sanctions. Acta Oeconomica, 74(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2024.00001
Shahidani, M. H., & Azin, S. (2024). The impact of the Ukraine war on the role of the EU in the West’s confrontation with Russia. Central Eurasia Studies, 16(2), 373–396. https://doi.org/10.22059/JCEP.2024.352162.450116
Sociálních V?d, F., & Konopásek, Š. (n.d.). Military strategy of the Russian Federation in early 21st Century Diplomová práce (Master’s thesis, Charles University).
Stewart, J. (2022). The Grey Orchestra: elastic communications and the UK’s response to salisbury. RUSI Journal, 167(2), 38–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2022.2075117
Tadviser. (n.d). Aviation industry of Russia. https://tadviser.com/index.php/Article:Aviation_industry_of_Russia
Union of International Associations. (n.d.). War. In Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential. https://encyclopedia.uia.org/problem/war
United Nations. (2022). Russia vetoes Security Council resolution condemning attempted annexation of Ukraine regions. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1129102
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (n.d.). Ukraine emergency. UNHCR. https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/ukraine-emergency
Wintour, P. (2022). Russia’s belief in Nato ‘betrayal’ – and why it matters today. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/12/russias-belief-in-nato-betrayal-and-why-it-matters-today
Wintour, P. (2022). Understanding Vladimir Putin, the man who fooled the world. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/understanding-vladimir-putin-the-man-who-fooled-the-world
World Bank. (n.d.). Ukraine overview: Development news, research, data. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview
World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, & Government of Ukraine. (2025). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment released. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
Yale School of Management. (2022). Over 1,000 companies have curtailed operations in Russia but some remain. Yale School of Management. https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
Yermakov, V. (n.d). Foreign direct investment inflow to Ukraine decreased by a quarter. PRO UKRAINE. https://pro-ukraine-magazine.com/foreign-direct-investment-inflow-to-ukraine-decreased-by-a-quarter/
Zhang, Z., Abdullah, M. J., Xu, G., Matsubae, K., & Zeng, X. (2023). Countries’ vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 16591. https://doi.org/10.1038/S41598-023-43883-4
Zubko, T. (2024). Strategies for the development of international trade in Ukraine. Agora International Journal of Economical Sciences, 18(1), 250–261.
??????, ?., & Galani, E. (2022). Consequences of war on supply chain and relative disruptions. https://doi.org/10.26267/UNIPI_DIONE/2030
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Luka Jacobi Krohn, Beatriz Marques da Luz, Krishna Kumari Toor

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Please click here for details about the LASSIJ's Licensing and Copyright policies.




