Sino-Russian Geopolitics in Central Asia: A Comparative Analysis from 2000-2021

Asma Rashid; Taqdees Tahir

doi:10.47264/idea.lassij/5.2.19

Authors

Asma Rashid Department of Politics & International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1502-7372
Taqdees Tahir Department of Social and Political Sciences, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3567-0579

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/5.2.19

Keywords:

Geopolitical competition, Central Asian region, Russia-China relations, regional security, geostrategic position, great power competition, regional hegemony

Abstract

This study explores how China and Russia have reshaped their roles in Central Asia from 2000 to 2021, in response to shifts in the region’s security landscape. Using Regional Security Complex Theory, it examines how both countries pursue their strategic goals across security, economic, and geopolitical dimensions. The research relies on qualitative analysis of scholarly literature, policy documents, and official statements. It finds that while Russia once dominated the region, it has transitioned into more of a security guarantor, with its influence now confined mainly to military and political spheres. In contrast, China has steadily expanded its economic footprint, utilising projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen its regional presence, thus avoiding direct rivalry. Both powers have adopted a cooperative division of roles, and institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation have helped them align their interests and prevent friction. The paper highlights how Central Asian states are asserting themselves more, employing flexible foreign policies to balance their relations with China, Russia, and other global players. The region exemplifies a model of "managed coexistence," where stability takes precedence over competition, offering a case study in shared influence and evolving geopolitics.

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