A comparative analysis and prediction of the economic growth of Pakistan using machine learning models

Nadia Mushtaq; Shakila Bashir; Amjad Mahmood; Farhad Hussain

doi:10.47264/idea.nasij/5.1.6

Authors

Nadia Mushtaq Department of Statistics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0652-0029
Shakila Bashir Department of Statistics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4701-6977
Amjad Mahmood Punjab College of Information Technology, Lahore, Pakistan | Hailey College of Commerce, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6396-2305
Farhad Hussain Department of Management Science and Engineering, Hebei University, Baoding, Hebei, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1399-6399

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.nasij/5.1.6

Keywords:

GDP, ARIMA, MLP, MNAR, Gross domestic product, Multilayer perceptron, Hybrid model, Neural network, Machine learning, Economic growth, Economic development, Prediction accuracy

Abstract

This article investigates a comparative analysis of machine learning models for Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an important indicator of the nation's economic development. GDP is crucial to assess well-versed decisions. Since machine learning techniques are more sophisticated, much interest has been developed in predicting GDP to handle complex data patterns and enhance prediction accuracy. In this study, we evaluated the performance of a variety of machine learning algorithms like Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), double exponential smoothing, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR), and hybrid machine learning models on data from 1960 to 2022. The MLP used in Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) outperforms based on the outcomes. This comparative analysis provides insights into the most suitable model for accurate prediction of Pakistani GDP for the years 2023 to 2032. This article provides a detailed analysis of various machine learning models used to predict Pakistan's GDP accurately. GDP prediction is an essential indicator of a nation's economic development and is crucial in making informed decisions. With the advancements in machine learning techniques, there has been a growing interest in predicting GDP due to their efficiency in handling complex data patterns and improving prediction accuracy.

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