Are the Millennials Getting Less Married? An Analysis of Selected European Countries

Khalid Khan; Seema Zubair; Sinem Derindere Koseoglu

doi:10.47264/idea.lassij/4.1.8

Authors

Khalid Khan School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, Jinan, Shandong, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2574-9232
Seema Zubair Department of Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6942-9038
Sinem Derindere Koseoglu PhD, Department of Business Administration, Istanbul University, Turkey.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/4.1.8

Keywords:

Marriage, Millennials, Bootstrap Causality Test, Divorce Rate, Financial Crises, Cohabitation, Marriage Rate, Millennials Population, Individualism

Abstract

The study investigates the causal link between the Millennials (ML) Population (18-37 year age) and the Marriage Rate (MR) (married population/total population) for the countries of France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK) by using the bootstrap causality test. The findings suggest that ML population has a significant negative impact on MR in Italy and the Netherlands, while MR has a significant negative impact on ML population in Spain. Besides, the System Generalized Method of Moment Regression (SGMM) is conducted to release the effects of the Divorce Rate (DR), Education Attainment (EA), Globalization (GB), Social Protection (SP), Secularization (SEC), House Prices (HP), Financial Crisis (FC), and Working Population of women (WP) variables on MR and ML population. Likewise, the outcomes display that these are the leading factors of explaining ML population. Our results support the two-period model of Peters (1986), which states that MR is the combination of the economic, social, and religious elements and has important policy implications.

References

Abalos, J. B. (2017). Divorce and separation in the Philippines: Trends and correlates. Demographic Research, 36, 1515-1548. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.50

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Becker, G. S. (1973). A theory of marriage (Part I). Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813-846. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831130

Castiglioni, M., & Dalla Zuanna, G. (2009). Marital and reproductive behaviour in Italy after 1995: Bridging the gap with Western Europe? European Journal of Population, 25(1), 1-26.

Cherlin, A. J. (2004). The deinstitutionalization of American marriage, Journal of Marriage and Family, 66(4), 848-861.

Edlund, L., Li, H., Yi, J., & Zhang, J. (2013). Sex ratios and crime: evidence from China. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5), 1520-1534. http://www.columbia.edu/~le93/EdlundLiYiZhang13.pdf

Eickmeyer, K. J., & Manning, W. D. (2018). Serial cohabitation in young adulthood: baby boomers to millennials. Journal of Marriage and Family, 80(4), 826-840.

Fesser, R. (2018). The Millennial Generation: Who are the Millennials? https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/documents/im_1804_32-33_dossier_1_en_0.pdf

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

Haneman, V. J. (2017). Marriage, millennials, and massive student loan debt. Concordia L. Review, 2, 103-120

Jones, J. (2018). Spanish millennials are reshaping their goals to afford life. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20181108-spanish-millennials-are-reshaping-their-goals-to-afford-life

Kar, M., Nazl?oglu, S., Ag?r, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(1), 685-693.

Khan, K., Su, C. W., Tao, R., & Yang, L. (2019). Does remittance outflow stimulate or retard economic growth? International Migration, 57(5), 105-120

Kuperberg, A. (2014). Age at co-residence, premarital cohabitation and marriage dissolution: 1985-2009. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76(2), 352-369

Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008

Konya, L. (2004). Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries. Bundoora: La Trobe University, School of Business.

Mhadhbi, K. (2014). New Proxy for financial development and economic growth in medium income countries: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis. International Journal of Research in Business Management, 2(5), 11-24. https://doi.org/ 10.12691/ajams-2-4-2

Mark, N. C., Ogaki, M., Sul, D. (2005). Dynamic seemingly unrelated co-integrating regression. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 797-820.

Martin, S. P., Astone, N. M., & Peters, H. E. (2014). Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40. Urban Institute. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED575460

Mulder, C. H. (2013). Family dynamics and housing: Conceptual issues and empirical findings. Demographic Research, 29, 355-378.

Mazuy, M., Barbieri, M., d’Albis, H., & Reeve, P. (2014). Recent demographic trends in France: The number of marriages continues to decrease. Population, 69(3), 273-321.

Nai Peng, T. (2007). Trends in delayed and non-marriage in Peninsular Malaysia. Asian Population Studies, 3(3), 243-261.

Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Working Papers No. 0435. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1536867X0600600403

Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.

Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.

Pew Research Center. (2010, February 24). Millennials a portrait of generation next. http://pewresearch.org/millennials/

Pesaran, M. H., Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.

Rosina, A., & Fraboni, R. (2004). Is marriage losing its centrality in Italy? Demographic Research, 11, 149-172.

Rault, C., & Afonso, A. (2009). Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU. Economics Bulletin, 29(2), 1027-1034.

Thomas, M. J., & Mulder, C. H. (2016). Partnership patterns and homeownership: a cross-country comparison of Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Housing Studies, 31(8), 935-963.

Traina, M. (2014). Italian Millennials: They’re Just Like Us! https://www.thecut.com/2014/10/italian-millennials-theyre-just-like-us.html

Sandfort, M. H., & Haworth, J. G. (2002). Whassup? A glimpse into the attitudes and beliefs of the millennial generation. Journal of College and Character, 3(3), 1-21.

Schneider, D., Harknett, K., & Stimpson, M. (2018). What explains the decline in first marriage in the United States? evidence from the panel study of income dynamics, 1969 to 2013. Journal of Marriage and Family, 80(4), 791-811

Skivington, K. (2018). Italian Culture a Millennial Perspective. https://www.illumestories.com/2018/09/italian-culture-a-millennial-perspective/

Smock, P. J., Manning, W. D., & Porter, M. (2005). Everything's there except money: How money shapes decisions to marry among cohabiters. Journal of Marriage and Family, 67(3), 680-696.

Su, C. W., Khan, K., Hao, L. N., Tao, R., & Peculea, A. D. (2020). Do house prices squeeze marriages in China? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 33(1), 1419-1440. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1746190

Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323.

Stokes, B. (2015). Who are the Millennials? https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/02/09/who-are-europes-millennials/

Ruzhi, X. U., Khan, K., Moldovan, N. C., & Iosif, A. (2019). Do house prices and marriages move together in China? Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research, 53(4), 59-78.

Werber, C. (2019). Getting married in your 30s is the new normal. https://qz.com/1602272/the-average-age-for-marriage-in-the-uk-is-now-over-30/

Zagorsky, J. L. (2005). Marriage and divorce’s impact on wealth. Journal of Sociology, 41(4), 406-424.

Zheng, M., Chen, Y. E., Feng, G. F., Wen, J., & Chang, C. P. (2018). Divorce and housing price in 31 provinces of China. Bulletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 21(2), 173-188. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v21i1.942