The dynamics of Pakistan-US relations after US withdrawal from Afghanistan: challenges and prospects
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/7.2.1Keywords:
Pak-US relationship, US-Pak cooperation, US-Pak animosity, US withdrawal, War on Terror, regional security, regional stability, geo-economy, soft powerAbstract
Since the 1950s till February 2023, ties between Pakistan and the United States (US) have seen many highs and lows. The current dynamics of Pakistan-US relations after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan have posed myriad challenges and further complicated the relationship between the two countries. The withdrawal has impacted the dynamics of the relationship between Pakistan and the US, and the implications of this shift have far-reaching consequences for regional security and stability. The paper discusses those challenges and brings forth the prospects that will shape the future of the relationship after new developments, including security concerns, geo-economic, people-to-people ties, and climate change. The researchers put the study together by using a qualitative research design. The theoretical framework of research is based on using soft power, which suggests that Pakistan-US relations could be improved by prioritising diplomacy, trade, dialogue, and cooperation rather than relying on threats and coercion. Overcoming the historical animosity in the Pakistan-US relationship presents a significant challenge for both states. Engaging in sustained and constructive dialogue will require mutual trust, prudence, determination, and strong political will. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of cooperation over common issues, trust-building, and a geo-economic approach to the relationship.
References
Abid, K., Bari, Y., A., Imran, A. (2020). Progress of Covid-19 epidemic in Pakistan, Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health 32(4), 154-156. https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539520927259 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539520927259
Agence France-Presse. (2022, October 4). Study eyes US cooperation with Pakistan amid China rise. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221004-study-eyes-us-cooperation-with-pakistan-amid-china-rise
Agreement, D. (2020). Agreement for bringing peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America. https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
Ahmad, S. (2018). Pakistan-US Relations and their strengths and weaknesses. Irritants in Pakistan-2018US Relations: way forward, IPRI, Islamabad. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47565
Ahmed, M. (2022). Letter gate conspiracy in Pakistan. Modern Diplomacy. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/04/10/letter-gate-conspiracy-in-pakistan/
Ahmar, M. (2021, May). Changing dynamics of Pakistan-US relations and the challenge of soft power. London School of Economics and Political Science. https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/publications/reports/changing-dynamics-pakistan-us-relations
Akbar, K. (2021, September 14). The US can’t blame Pakistan for its failure in Afghanistan. The Diplomate. https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/the-us-cant-blame-pakistan-for-its-failure-in-afghanistan/
Akbar, M. (2015). US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: implications for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS). 35(2). http://pjss.bzu.edu.pk/index.php/pjss/article/view/380/345
Akhter, H., Ahmad, R. E., & Sajid, M. (2021, December). Divergence and convergence of interests after 9/11: Pakistan-US cooperation in perspective of Afghanistan. Journal of Indian Studies 7(2). 445–55. http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/indianStudies/PDF/15_v7_2_21.pdf
Ali, S., M. (November 21, 2022). The U.S-China strategic rivalry and its implications for Pakistan. Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/2020/the-u-s-china-strategic-rivalry-and-its-implications-for-pakistan/
Alvi, M. (2022, February 11). US always used Pakistan, says PM Imran Khan. The News International. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/932440-us-always-used-pakistan-says-pm.
APP. (2023, March 7) “Pak, US Reaffirm commitment to address Common threat of terrorism.” Associated Press of Pakistan. https://www.app.com.pk/national/pak-us-reaffirm-commitment-to-address-common-threat-of-terrorism/
Awais, S. M., Dar, U. Z., & Saeed, A. (2012). Amputations of limbs during the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan: a firsthand experience of the author. International Orthopaedics, 36, 2323-2326. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00264-012-1589-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00264-012-1589-3
Carter, L. M., Salyers, V., Myers, S., Hipfner, C., Hoffart, C., MacLean, C., ... & Barrett, P. (2014). Qualitative insights from a Canadian multi-institutional research study: in search of meaningful e-learning. Canadian Journal for the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 5(1), 10-20. https://doi.org/10.5206/cjsotl-rcacea.2014.1.10 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5206/cjsotl-rcacea.2014.1.10
Chaudhary, S., N. & Nasr, V. (2021 February 10). Biden needs a new Pakistan policy. This is what it should look like. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/biden-needs-a-new-pakistan-policy-this-is-what-it-should-look-like/
Consulate General of Pakistan, (2021, October 31). US Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry calls on Prime Minister Imran Khan. Jeddah. https://parepjeddah.org/2471-2/
Dawi, A. (2022, March 16). US-Pakistan relations Ebb after Afghanistan withdrawal. Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pakistan-relations-ebb-after-afghanistan-withdrawal/6488429.html
Dawn. (2021, March 18). Read: full text of Gen Bajwa's Speech at the Islamabad Security Dialogue. DAWN. https://www.dawn.com/news/1613207
Elo, S., & Kyngäs, H. (2008). The qualitative content analysis process. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 62(1), 107-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2648.2007.04569.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2648.2007.04569.x
Ghauri, M. J., Khan, M. R., & Ahmed, N. (2023). Journalism and the regime change in Pakistan (2022): exploring the solidarity and political discourses on the social media. Journal of Humanities, Social and Management Sciences (JHSMS), 4(1), 97–117. https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.jhsms/4.1.7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.jhsms/4.1.7
Gillani, Z., Aquil, S., & Rehman, H. (2023). Strategic interaction between Russia and US in Syria: a game theoretic analysis from 2014-2022. Liberal Arts and Social Sciences International Journal (LASSIJ), 7(1), 221–238. https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/7.1.13 DOI: https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.lassij/7.1.13
Hussain, N. A. (1987). Pakistan-US security relations: Arms Sales, Bases, and Nuclear Issues. in Rose, L.E. & Hussain, N.A (Eds.), United States-Pakistan Forum: Relations with the Major Powers. Vanguard.
Hussain, H. (2022, December 22). Climate change relief can transform the Pakistan-US relationship. New Lines Institute. https://newlinesinstitute.org/pakistan/climate-change-relief-can-transform-the-pakistan-u-s-relationship/
Hussain, M. (2021). CPEC and Geo-Security behind Geo-Economics: China’s master stroke to counter terrorism and energy security dilemma. East Asia 38(4), 313–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-021-09364-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-021-09364-z
Iqbal, A. (2021, September 29). US Generals express concern over Pakistan's Nuclear arsenal in wake of Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan. DAWN. https://www.dawn.com/news/1649127
Jabeen, M., Mazhar, M., S., Goraya, N., S. (2010, December). Trends and Challenges in Pak-US Relations: post September 1. A Research Journal of South Asian Studies,25 (2), 185-198. http://111.68.103.26/journals/index.php/IJSAS/article/viewFile/2794/1041
Jamal, S. (2021, January 24). Pakistan hopes for renewed bilateral ties with US under Biden. Gulf News. https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-hopes-for-renewed-bilateral-ties-with-us-under-biden-1.76708725
Karim, S., & Hayat, U. (2019). Pakistan on FATF’s grey list: what, why, and why now. DAWN. https://dawn.com/news/1418143
Khan, I. A. (2022, October 20). Terror attacks in Pakistan surge by 51% after Afghan Taliban victory. DAWN. https://www.dawn.com/news/1715927
Kugelman, M. & Hasan, R. (2017, November 30). What a year of Track II discussion says about the future of US-Pakistan relations. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/year-track-ii-discussions-says-future-u-s-pakistan-relations/
Latif, A., & Sajid, I. (2022, March 9). Pakistani PM Imran Khan ousted in parliament no-confidence vote. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistani-pm-imran-khan-ousted-in-parliament-no-confidence-vote/2559696
Mahmood, A. (2022, February 15). Pakistan's strategic shift from geo-politics to geo-economics. Pakistan Today. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/02/15/pakistans-strategic-shift-from-geo-politics-to-geo-economics/
Markey, D., S. (2013). From the outside-in: US-Pakistan relation in the regional context. No Exit from Pakistan, 106–36. Cambridge University. https://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/45460/frontmatter/9781107045460_frontmatter.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107053755
Mark. R. A (1999). International conflict and cooperation: an introduction. McGraw-Hill College. https://archive.org/details/internationalcon0000amst
Markey, D., S. (2023, January 31). America's Perennial Pakistan Problem. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-09-09/americas-perennial-pakistan-problem
Miller, Z. & Madhani, A, (2021, July 8). Overdue: Biden sets Aug. 31 for US exit from Afghanistan. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-afghanistan-government-and-politics-86f939c746c7bc56bb9f11f095a95366
Mir, N., A. (2021, November 9). Issues and mistrust in US-Pakistan Relations. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/southasiasource/issues-and-mistrust-in-us-pakistan-relations/
Mohydin, R. (2021, July 30). US-Pakistan relations post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan: a shift in dynamics. TRT World Research Centre. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/featured/us-pakistan-relations-post-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-a-shift-in-dynamics/
Munshi, U. (2022, September 30). Redefining Pakistan-US relations in post-Afghanistan withdrawal phase. Pakistan Languages and Humanities Review. 6(3), 139–51. https://doi.org/10.47205/plhr.2022(6-iii)12 DOI: https://doi.org/10.47205/plhr.2022(6-III)12
Murtazashvili, J., B. (2022, January). The collapse of Afghanistan. Journal of Democracy, 33 (1), 40–54. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0003
National Security Archive. (2011, July 27). Non-Papers and Demarches: US and British combined to delay Pakistani Nuclear Weapons Program in 1978-1981, Declassified Documents Show. National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 352. George Washington University. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb352/
Nizamani, U. & Firdous, A. (2023, February 14). The case for continued US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation. South Asian Voices. https://southasianvoices.org/the-case-for-continued-u-s-pakistan-counterterrorism-cooperation/
Nye, J. S. (2004). Soft power: the means to success in world politics. Public affairs.
PIPS. (2023, January 7). Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) releases its Annual 'Pakistan Security report 2022. Pak Institute for Peace Studies. (PIPS). https://www.pakpips.com/article/7315#:~:text=These%20actions%20caused%20a%20total,2021%20%E2%80%93%20besides%20injuring%2051%20others
Rahman, A. & Khan A., Z. (2012). Analysis of 2010-flood causes, nature and magnitude in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan,” Natural Hazards, 66(2) 887-904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0528-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0528-3
Reynolds, D. (2023, January 20). America's ongoing support for Pakistan's flood recovery. Share America. https://share.america.gov/americas-ongoing-support-for-pakistans-flood-recovery/
Riedel, B. (2011). Understanding Pakistan. In Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of Global Jihad, 1–16. Brookings Institution.
Roy, M., I. & Khalid, F. (2019). The Dynamics of Pakistan-US relations (2001-2019): (American Apprehension in Indian Ocean). Journal of Indian Studies, 5(2), 213-230. http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/indianStudies/PDF/7_v5_2_19.pdf
Schroden, J. (2022, May 23). Who is to blame for the collapse of Afghanistan’s security forces? War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/who-is-to-blame-for-the-collapse-of-afghanistans-security-forces/#:~:text=Last%20week%2C%20the%20Special%20Inspector,Afghanistan%20through%20signing%20the%20U.S.%2D
Shahbaz, M. (2023, January). Revisiting friends & foes: US-Pak Relation’s turbulent history and future. Open Journal of Political Science 13, no. 01. 88–118. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojps.2023.131006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ojps.2023.131006
The News International. (2023, January 6). Cultural, professional exchange programs vital for Pak-US relations: Masood Khan. The News. https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1027734-cultural-professional-exchange-programs-vital-for-pak-us-relations-ambassador-masood-khan
The Newspaper's Staff. (2021, May 17). Pakistan wants broad-based partnership with US, Blinken Told. DAWN. https://www.dawn.com/news/1623975
The White House. (2022, October 14). Remarks by President Biden at a democratic congressional campaign committee reception. The United States Government. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/10/14/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-democratic-congressional-campaign-committee-reception
Trubowitz, P. (2021, September 3). Biden's messy Afghanistan withdrawal has increased the need to deliver on his domestic agenda by Professor Peter Trubowitz. Americas' Global Role. https://americas.chathamhouse.org/article/biden-messy-afghanistan-withdrawal-domestic-agenda/
Trump, D. (2018, January). Tweet about US aid to Pakistan. Twitter. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/947802588174577664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E947802588174577664%7Ctwgr%5Eb9629fb5837440d2c31d865505b62c6d02afcd63%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2018%2F9%2F4%2F17818396%2Fpakistan-aid-military-trump-pompeo-afghanistan
US Department of State. (2022, November 10). Cultural, educational, and sports diplomacy: The National Museum of American Diplomacy. US Department of State. https://diplomacy.state.gov/discover-diplomacy/topic/cultural-educational-and-sports-diplomacy/
United Nations. (2022, January 28). Fourteenth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da'esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat. United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/delegate/page/un-official-documents
US Mission Pakistan, (2022, May 23). US Embassy Islamabad announces arrival of Ambassador Donald Blome. US Embassy & Consulates in Pakistan. https://pk.usembassy.gov/u-s-embassy-islamabad-announces-arrival-of-ambassador-donald-blome/
US Mission Pakistan. (2022, September 29). Ambassador Blome's remarks 75th anniversary reception. US Embassy & Consulates in Pakistan. https://pk.usembassy.gov/ambassador-blomes-remarks-75th-anniversary-reception-september-29-2022/
USAID. (2022, October 27). Additional Humanitarian funding for flood response in Pakistan. United States Agency for International Development. https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/oct-27-2022-additional-humanitarian-funding-flood-response-pakistan
US Department of State. (2010, October 29). Update: US response to Pakistan’s flood disaster. https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/10/150186.htm
US seeks a strong partnership with Pakistan on counterterrorism: official. Business Standard. (2023, February 14). https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-seeks-a-strong-partnership-with-pakistan-on-counterterrorism-official-123021400709_1.html
US State Department Report. (1972, February 3). Military assistance and arms sales to Pakistan (No B-17365). Department of States. https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-173651-091331.pdf
Wright, W (2011, May 8). The double game. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/16/the-double-game
Yousaf, K. (2021, October 23). Pakistan denies airspace accord with US. The Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2326064/pakistan-denies-airspace-accord-with-us
Zengerle, P., & Pamuk, H. (2021, September 13). Blinken says US will assess Pakistan ties over Afghanistan's future. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/blinken-says-us-will-assess-pakistan-ties-over-afghanistans-future-2021-09-13
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Asad Ullah, Sadia Sulaiman, Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Please click here for details about the LASSIJ's Licensing and Copyright policies.